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Go north.

The official line I keep hearing is the Malaysia flight could have gone south or west along the radius of the last satellite ping.

I am sorry but I call bullshit.  A pilot bent on suicide would have sought to do it visibly if he was going to suicide by plane.  Also, suicide by plane would not do the climb, transponder off, and ghost act.  He also would not fly for hours into the great white south AND have his family move out the day before.

No, as commenter Mitchell pointed out, ghosting under another plane has been recognized as a way one could slip out of being tracked in an area where business as usual isn’t rigorously tracked.  It was well-described in Neal Stephenson’s “Reamde” novel.

Let’s go north again.  Wherever it went, it arrived there days ago, and looking for it now will only be looking at areas where unusual activity is occurring, using satellites.

Wherever it is, if we know about it, and have not bombed it into a smoking crater, it means a potential hostage situation has stayed our hand.  Any action would result in a UN demand for forensics, which would turn up what I suspect would be a lot of suddenly now-dead civilians.

If we don’t know about it, while whoever has it traced all transmitters on the plane to remove them, chatter will go silent, and the NSA and CIA will go nuts looking for it and signs of anything moving towards it.  All roads would lead to Rome IF whatever was going to be loaded into it wasn’t already in place, and I think a state sponsored plan will have already done so.

That plane will not be used for some time, is my guess, but the hostages will be kept fresh for it’s final trip.

Yeah, it reads like a damned spy novel, but it already has gone into that territory.

Don’t get me wrong, as I think the best scenario we could hope for at this point is it crashed.  It is a PR disaster waiting to happen for the second best scenario, where passengers die and lots of awful things like nukes (bomb or wastes) get scattered as it is shot down.  

Worst case is they fly it in with transponder off under a white flag requesting sanctuary, and getting an nuclear bomb air burst over Israel.  And if they take out Israel’s infrastructure with an EMP then they can go in using their military forces held in reserve.

Now, my argument for keeping the passengers alive is the tendency of the Islamic fanatics to hide behind the skirts of women and children if it suits their goals.  

Tel Aviv, Israel is the only target that makes sense, unless they want to take out a US aircraft carrier.  And the fanatics want Jerusalem intact.  

Any of those nations from Pakistan westward are completely capable of turning an eye in their airspace.

This is ALL supposition, but the longer this goes without resolution, the worse it will be.

 

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So look at the map of possible landing strips of over 5000ft for a 777 (MH370) to land.

Well, that is real nice and all, but one of the pilots had a freaking flight simulator in his home.

And with all due respect to WYNC, but the Hyderabad airport in Pakistan is just shy of 7000ft and there are more locations.  I wonder why no destinations in Pakistan were flagged.  At some point someone said they were known to be over the Andaman Islands.

Over 5000ft runways only…

Absorb this. The last ping puts it somewhere along those paths.  Maybe.

Range, radar, and warm fuzzies.

For shits and giggles, let’s look at a great circle map from Malaysia to Hyderabad, Pakistan.  I could have picked northern Pak as well.

Final analysis?  It does not add up.  There is info that is wrong or misinformation.

Flying on the south route makes zero sense.  If a pilot wanted to suicide he could have done it long before that.  If he had a grudge he would have picked a target.  No, they went somewhere and it is making someone very nervous.  Northern Pakistan would be one place I would look, if I could fly over it.

And if I were Israel, I would be on high alert.

Great circle map to illustrate range.

 

 

 

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Loose Cannon.

Far be it for me to be suspicious, but state-sponsored terrorism seems at least possible.   

Who would want a plane not directly attached to them?  If you wanted to fill the plane with “stuff” and send it to someone you did not like, and the stuff was bad enough, no one would shoot it down over their own soil.  And for another country to do so, it would almost be an act of war.  

And, if the missing passengers were aboard and unharmed as precious cargo, it would also be messy to take it out.  A plane full of passengers from a country that would lash out if the plane had to be shot down. A bad guy going anywhere he wanted could do so with a plane full of hostages, saying plausibly “oh, we just want safe passage…” 

I find it interesting that the plane could make it to Pakistan.  It looks like one could just about make it to Hyderabad, if one knew what he was doing and had the experience.  I have included a shot from the link there…

Quite a range.

Where from there, one wonders.  Only a few states would want it, and almost any use you could think of (legit) would be easier done by just buying it outright.  So let’s go to the shady uses – by means, motive, and opportunity.

Bad actors would be Pakistan, Iran, Saudi, Syria, and Yemen. All of whom could strike nearby by allowing their airspace to be used.  The state sponsored hijacking would have to go through Pakistan because it is the nearest point.  

The “end customer” could be anyone on that list. And many of those states have access to deep pockets. And the have access to bad substances, weaponizable. Means.

Every one of them have enemies.  Israel and the US but other softer targets are nearby.  Motivation abounds.

Opportunity… It would have to be an area with friendly soil nearby.  It would be radar-sparse.  

 Loose conjecture, I know, but no crazier than stealing a 777 in the first place.

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In the Eye of Newt.

“So I’m prepared, if the NAACP invites me, I’ll go to their convention and talk about why the African-American community should demand paychecks and not be satisfied with food stamps,” Newt Gingrich said at a townhall event in Plymouth, N.H. today.

Thank heavens he’s not going to pull off a presidential run.  It’s stuff like this that is really scary – it doesn’t sound stupid until one thinks about it, and then it becomes really scary stuff.  At first you think “Yeah!  Why shouldn’t they prefer paychecks over welfare?”

And then it hits you – why are you thinking about that when you should be asking what in the hell right does anyone in America have to DEMAND any damn thing at all?  Demand?  Seriously?

This is America where life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness are good things – unalienable rights.  Nowhere has anyone been awarded the right to stipulate what they feel is required for the pursuit of their happiness, such as arguing that a requisite for any of those three is a job that one must be granted once demands for a suitable one are made.

And then we have the Bill of Rights, which is something you should demand.

Ol’ Newt sure must think a lot of himself to think that the NAACP is going to bail on Obama so’s they can pick out some old cracker who is arguing that working for money is somehow smarter than not-working for money.  Sheesh, given that kind of choice, who isn’t going to take the no-work option?

****

Nope, in a million bazillion years I could not have made this up.  A 100 year old still-practicing prostitute?

****

More later…

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In the mailbag:

Dear Dr. Lemur –

My cousin has asked me to become their friend on FaceBook.  I think she is a soul-less heartless monster for the way she has screwed one of her brother’s kids out of his inheritance and feel towards her exactly the way this quote puts it:

If I’d known my niece was going to turn out as she has, I would have gotten my sister a dingo for a baby shower present.  – leeann (a blogger)

Except I feel that someone should have sent the dingo to my aunt, instead – maybe even two dingoes just to be sure the job had been done.

What should I do?

Signed,

Wary Kitty in Kalamazoo

Dr. Lemur:  Well, Kitty, a little constructive criticism would do wonders, so if I may offer some that could provide you with needed assistance…?  Kitty, listen carefully because this is important, get a grip on your shoulders and pull your head out of your ass.  Just because this radioactive hose-beast is “family” by no means obligates you to have anything to do with her.

Take two Midol, grow a spine, and tell the creature to take a hike.

****

I’ll say this:  I don’t know why I chose the title I did.  Don’t try to make sense of it.

I can tell you that there is great news and that is that I had a consulting surgeon, probably one of ten in the country, who said that he loves surgery but doesn’t want to cut me open because he doesn’t think it will help.

“Sure, if you go see more surgeons one will cut you open, but I wouldn’t do it,” he said.

“Well, thank you, doc,” said I, and Cruel Wife sighed a sigh of relief along with me.

But, he says, the type of injury is most likely soft-tissue injury that’s just not healed and it’s referred pain.

I don’t know, perhaps that is code for “No idea what’s doing it,” but when I asked him “So you’re telling me that this is not in my head?” he said “Oh, no, it’s real.”

So, in some ways it is great news but in other ways we’re back to square one, with no real solution.  Regardless, I am going to see a longer-term pain management and I’m going to insist that we do something, anything, to manage this without the opiate-based painkillers which are just (a) not good for long-term pain control, and (b) a real pain in the ass for an engineer.  There are other solutions that are being used in Europe and I’ll bring that up with him but my first choice is what can we do to change the referred stuff.  For whatever reason, ligaments in my neck have impersonated my left arm and hand, and are doing a Jean-Claude Van Damme crappy job of the whole affair.

****

Hey, if you haven’t seen it, check out the movie “Aaah! Zombies!!” (Wasting Away).   How can you not like a movie where the story is from the zombie’s perspective and the “agent of change” is green goo in a barrel labeled “Baby Formula” that is then mixed into soft-serve ice-cream that uses cheap beer as an ingredient?  You can’t, I say.

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How much longer to we have to put up with Team Obama, again?

I’m experiencing failure to achieve liftoff in my guesses as to how they could alienate struggling and out-of-work families even more than they already have.  Then there are the fortunates like my family that still chafe at having to pay a lot of money to support everyone else (we are comfortable but we are not rich, nor do we feel secure in this economy).  And then there are the affluent who are probably getting tired of being Obama’s financial whipping-boy – whenever he gets blamed for something he talks about how evil the rich are and how raising their taxes even more is really just them paying their fair share.

This is enough to make one ill, especially when you think what, for example, $1000 means to you personally.  Now think about how many people who pay thousands of dollars (at a minimum) in taxes while these classless clowns could get their African Vacation.  A lot of people haven’t had a proper vacation in years because of the economy, or even had a job… Sure being President is a hard job and the family of the President does have stress, but you can’t tell me they are more stressed than the family that is getting foreclosed on and hasn’t yet figured out where they can go.

Although ignored by most of America’s liberal-dominated media, several online US news sites are reporting that Michelle Obama’s grand tour of southern Africa earlier this year cost American taxpayers nearly half a million dollars – and that’s just for the flights. This follows in the wake of claims this August from sources inside the White House itself that the First Lady may have spent “$10 million of taxpayers’ money on vacations alone in the past year.”  – Nile Gardiner

Live it up, douchebags.  Your first-term presidency time is running out and the election is growing nearer every day.  I doubt a second term is in the stars.

****

The idea of mountain coasters (mini rollercoasters on mountainsides) makes me think of Action Park (aka Traction Park).

It sounds like a GREAT idea!  What could go wrong?

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Wax on, wax off.

Update:  Hmmm.  So UARS didn’t come down yet.  Ha!  Ha, Mitchell!  Just goes to show you that when you start taking about physics it’s never “as easy as all that”.

I continue to be less than concerned.

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Been a hell of a week in LemurHouse.

All the same reasons with a few really scary new ones but hey, it’s only another 8 days until I see the surgeon, right?

Short post – this whole article made me immediately think of Brazilian waxing, for some reason.  Piranhas attacking beachgoers in Brazil.  I think the ol’ brain thought of getting bitten in the privates and the reported pain involved in waxing… down there.

Neither one sounds very appealing.

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