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Posts Tagged ‘777’

Go north.

The official line I keep hearing is the Malaysia flight could have gone south or west along the radius of the last satellite ping.

I am sorry but I call bullshit.  A pilot bent on suicide would have sought to do it visibly if he was going to suicide by plane.  Also, suicide by plane would not do the climb, transponder off, and ghost act.  He also would not fly for hours into the great white south AND have his family move out the day before.

No, as commenter Mitchell pointed out, ghosting under another plane has been recognized as a way one could slip out of being tracked in an area where business as usual isn’t rigorously tracked.  It was well-described in Neal Stephenson’s “Reamde” novel.

Let’s go north again.  Wherever it went, it arrived there days ago, and looking for it now will only be looking at areas where unusual activity is occurring, using satellites.

Wherever it is, if we know about it, and have not bombed it into a smoking crater, it means a potential hostage situation has stayed our hand.  Any action would result in a UN demand for forensics, which would turn up what I suspect would be a lot of suddenly now-dead civilians.

If we don’t know about it, while whoever has it traced all transmitters on the plane to remove them, chatter will go silent, and the NSA and CIA will go nuts looking for it and signs of anything moving towards it.  All roads would lead to Rome IF whatever was going to be loaded into it wasn’t already in place, and I think a state sponsored plan will have already done so.

That plane will not be used for some time, is my guess, but the hostages will be kept fresh for it’s final trip.

Yeah, it reads like a damned spy novel, but it already has gone into that territory.

Don’t get me wrong, as I think the best scenario we could hope for at this point is it crashed.  It is a PR disaster waiting to happen for the second best scenario, where passengers die and lots of awful things like nukes (bomb or wastes) get scattered as it is shot down.  

Worst case is they fly it in with transponder off under a white flag requesting sanctuary, and getting an nuclear bomb air burst over Israel.  And if they take out Israel’s infrastructure with an EMP then they can go in using their military forces held in reserve.

Now, my argument for keeping the passengers alive is the tendency of the Islamic fanatics to hide behind the skirts of women and children if it suits their goals.  

Tel Aviv, Israel is the only target that makes sense, unless they want to take out a US aircraft carrier.  And the fanatics want Jerusalem intact.  

Any of those nations from Pakistan westward are completely capable of turning an eye in their airspace.

This is ALL supposition, but the longer this goes without resolution, the worse it will be.

 

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So look at the map of possible landing strips of over 5000ft for a 777 (MH370) to land.

Well, that is real nice and all, but one of the pilots had a freaking flight simulator in his home.

And with all due respect to WYNC, but the Hyderabad airport in Pakistan is just shy of 7000ft and there are more locations.  I wonder why no destinations in Pakistan were flagged.  At some point someone said they were known to be over the Andaman Islands.

Over 5000ft runways only…

Absorb this. The last ping puts it somewhere along those paths.  Maybe.

Range, radar, and warm fuzzies.

For shits and giggles, let’s look at a great circle map from Malaysia to Hyderabad, Pakistan.  I could have picked northern Pak as well.

Final analysis?  It does not add up.  There is info that is wrong or misinformation.

Flying on the south route makes zero sense.  If a pilot wanted to suicide he could have done it long before that.  If he had a grudge he would have picked a target.  No, they went somewhere and it is making someone very nervous.  Northern Pakistan would be one place I would look, if I could fly over it.

And if I were Israel, I would be on high alert.

Great circle map to illustrate range.

 

 

 

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Loose Cannon.

Far be it for me to be suspicious, but state-sponsored terrorism seems at least possible.   

Who would want a plane not directly attached to them?  If you wanted to fill the plane with “stuff” and send it to someone you did not like, and the stuff was bad enough, no one would shoot it down over their own soil.  And for another country to do so, it would almost be an act of war.  

And, if the missing passengers were aboard and unharmed as precious cargo, it would also be messy to take it out.  A plane full of passengers from a country that would lash out if the plane had to be shot down. A bad guy going anywhere he wanted could do so with a plane full of hostages, saying plausibly “oh, we just want safe passage…” 

I find it interesting that the plane could make it to Pakistan.  It looks like one could just about make it to Hyderabad, if one knew what he was doing and had the experience.  I have included a shot from the link there…

Quite a range.

Where from there, one wonders.  Only a few states would want it, and almost any use you could think of (legit) would be easier done by just buying it outright.  So let’s go to the shady uses – by means, motive, and opportunity.

Bad actors would be Pakistan, Iran, Saudi, Syria, and Yemen. All of whom could strike nearby by allowing their airspace to be used.  The state sponsored hijacking would have to go through Pakistan because it is the nearest point.  

The “end customer” could be anyone on that list. And many of those states have access to deep pockets. And the have access to bad substances, weaponizable. Means.

Every one of them have enemies.  Israel and the US but other softer targets are nearby.  Motivation abounds.

Opportunity… It would have to be an area with friendly soil nearby.  It would be radar-sparse.  

 Loose conjecture, I know, but no crazier than stealing a 777 in the first place.

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